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Computing Odds

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Computing Odds - A Self-Learning Text

Carillon Historical Park In the final section, we explain the notions of a payoff function and expected value. Similar to Epi Info, in a stratified analysis, both crude and adjusted estimates are provided so that the assessment of confounding can be made. Alle Rechte vorbehalten. From the reviews of the second edition: "..

As you can see, you have a great reason to play this flush draw, because you'll be making moneyin the long run according to your hand odds and pot odds.

The most fundamental point to take from this is:. If your Pot Odds are greater than your poker hand odds, then you are making a profit in the long run.

Even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times - which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds - it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1.

Other times, if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw, but someone has just raised a large amount so that your pot odds are , then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush, as you will lose money in the long run.

In this situation, a fold or semi-bluff is your only solution, unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break-even.

Your ability to memorize or calculate your hand odds as well as calculate pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future - just be sure to remember that fundamental principle of profitably playing drawing hands requires that your pot odds are greater than your hand odds.

An important note I have to make is that many players who understand Hold'em odds tend to forget is that much of the theoretical odds calculations from the flop to the river assume there is no betting on the turn.

So while it's true that for a flush draw, the odds are 1. Unfortunately, most of the time, this will not be the case, so you should not calculate pot odds from the flop to the river and instead calculate them one card at a time.

To calculate your odds one card at a time, simply use the same odds that you have going from the turn to the river. So for example, your odds of hitting a flush from the turn to river is 4 to 1, which means your odds of hitting a flush from the flop to the turn is 4 to 1 as well.

To help illustrate even further, we will use the flush calculation example that shows an often-used but incorrect way of thinking.

As you can see from these example calculations, calling a flush draw with 2 to 1 pot odds on the flop can lead to a long term loss, if there is additional betting past the flop.

Most of the time, however, there is a concept called Implied Value which we'll get to next that is able to help flush draws and open-ended straight draws still remain profitable even with seemingly 'bad' odds.

The draws that you want to worry about the most are your long shot draws: overcards, gut shots and two-outers hoping to make a set with your pocket pair.

If you draw these hands using incorrect odds such as flop to river odds , you will be severely punished in the long run. Implied Value is a pretty cool concept that takes into account future betting.

Like the above section, where you have to worry about your opponent betting on the turn, implied value is most often used to anticipate your opponent calling on the river.

So for example, let's say that you have yet another flush draw and are being offered a 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn. Knowing that you need 4 to 1 pot odds to make this a profitable call, you decide to fold.

Aha, but wait! Here is where implied value comes into play. So, even though you're getting 3 to 1 pot odds on the turn, you can likely anticipate your opponent calling you on the river if you do hit your flush draw.

This means that even though you're only getting 3 to 1 pot odds, since you anticipate your opponent calling a bet on the river, you are anticipating 4 to 1 pot odds - so you are able to make this call on the turn.

So in the most practical standpoint, implied value usually means that you can subtract one bet from your drawing odds on the turn, as it anticipates your opponents calling at least one bet.

In some more advanced areas, you can use implied odds as a means of making some draws that might not be profitable a majority of the time, but stand to make big payouts when they do hit.

Some examples of this would be having a tight image and drawing to a gut shot against another tight player. Even though this is a horribly bad play and hopefully you don't have to pay much for it , it can possibly be a positive play if you know your opponent will pay you off if you hit your draw - because he won't believe you played a gut shot draw.

For many reasons, I do not recommend fancy implied odds plays like these, but mentioned it more so that you can recognize some players who pull these 'tricky' plays on you as well.

Knowing how to figure out your odds in Texas Hold'em is one of the most fundamental points in becoming a solid poker player.

If this poker odds page was a bit difficult to understand, don't worry. Keep playing, bookmark this page and come back when you need another brush-up on how to properly apply odds.

It takes a while to learn how to calculate them properly and to memorize them as well. Practice makes perfect, so be sure to check out our Party Poker Bonus Codes to get an extrabonus when you are first starting out.

You can also view our full Party Poker Review. As a little 'poker cheat', you can also download poker backgrounds that can help assist you, should you often forget your odds and outs.

Good luck at the poker tables! Visit our partners for online poker strategy tips and poker strategy for playing internet poker. Party Poker Strategy Guide :: info tightpoker.

Please check your local laws or consult with legal counsel before attempting to play poker online. Tight Poker. Why are Odds Important in Poker Why are poker odds so important anyhow?

To illustrate: Let's say you and a friend are flipping a quarter and he gives you odds that the next flip will land on heads.

This is summed up in this short principle: In poker, there are two types of players. A Nine or Ace gives you a straight 8 outs , while any diamond gives you the flush 9 outs.

To make a straight, you need a [Q] or [7] to drop, giving you 4 outs each or a total of 8 outs. This means that anyone holding a [K] will have made a King-high straight, while you hold the second-best Queen-high straight.

In the above calculation we fixed all other variables to zero. Would the OR have been different if we had fixed them to a different value?

We will show with some basic calculations that the answer is no. Along the way, we will also derive a much simpler way to compute the OR from the parameter estimates for the special case in which the response variable is binary.

However, we would reach the same conclusion with any number of additional variables that are kept constant. We can verify this with our estimated coefficients.

This reflects the well-known relation between multiple regression parameters and the OR. Thus, variable selection has already been performed and it is not necessary to perform an additional hypothesis test on the OR or the underlying variables.

When considering only two variables such a change in probabilities is perhaps easier to interpret than ORs. This makes this alternative less attractive for models that include more than two variables.

In the interest of brevity I only show the R-code for this calculation. So while changes in probabilities are maybe easier to interpret, they have the downside that the changes depend on which values we fix the other variables.

However, this may be acceptable in situations in which we are interested in some specific state of all other variables. Starting out with the definition of odds ratios, I showed how to compute them in a general setting and how to compute them from the output of the mgm -package.

Proving this fact revealed a simpler formula for calculating ORs for the special case of having a binary response variable.

Finally, we considered predicted probabilities as an alternative for ORs. To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their blog: Jonas Haslbeck - r.

Want to share your content on R-bloggers? Never miss an update! The odds against - the ratio of the number of ways that an outcome cannot occur compared to in how many ways it can occur.

A jewelry box contains 5 white pearl, 2 gold rings and 6 silver rings. What are the odds of drawing a white pearl from the jewelry box?

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Computing Odds Weitere Kapitel dieses Buchs durch Wischen aufrufen

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Computing Odds Video

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